Market Recap Week 12th to 17th May 2019

The model on a weekly basis worsened strongly to -9, and the market broke the 2864 SPX level on a closing basis on the death.  The Daily Model has been in Risk On for 3 weeks now, the Monthly since 1st May.  But the Weekly Model has NOT triggered AGAIN by 3 point....

Thursday, 16th May 2019

Riskdial improved significantly to +15.  And nothing to do with the 2864 level. Is it not amazing how asset spreads themselves recognize that pivotal level in just equities? Personally, I am amazed.  The Deviations green area does not come in till SPY 276. But if the...

Wednesday, 15th May 2019

Riskdial still negative @ -14.  This small improvement is not material. As highlighted yesterday, small improvements in risk assets are the norm in the 2-3 day timeframe. The Deviations green area does not come in till SPY 275.3, so market could still fall 2-3% before...

Tuesday, 14h May 2019

Riskdial still negative @ -18.  This small improvement is not terribly material. As highlighted yesterday, small improvements in risk assets are the norm in the 2-3 day timeframe. The Deviations green area does not come in till SPY 275, so market could still fall 2-3%...

Model Score Delta Change

The model had a today the second lowest score day over day delta change since inception.  Short-term this has historically lead to light bounces, see below for the walk forward analysis from 1 day to 50 days (formatted numbers):    ...

Monday, 13th May 2019

Riskdial down dramatically @ -31. A true 13th date move. And we still have Friday 17th this week too… I checked the components and all the defensive sectors are up against the risk sectors, while bonds/equities have crossed all relevant MAs, so a true risk off move....
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