Correlations closed the week at .73 on a short term basis.

The vix futures curve is in slight contango.

For the first time since March implied volatility is under realized volatility.

The volatility risk premium has been negative as of late.

We think the implied going under realized is the most important factor this week.  If implied continues to decline then volatility could abound (shown by far left dots on charts below).  Apart from that muted volatility seems like a reasonable probability.

In Summary bearish conditions have eased, but we are nearing extremes again (ie implied-realized spread).  This is what we want to monitor in the coming week.  Apart from that we feel volatility could be muted.

Thanks and have a great week.