Correlations closed the week at .75. Near the high end of this sell off. We are well into the range where crash-risk appears – however still located in the tails.
By most metrics, volatility now appears to be correctly priced. In the volatility cone, vix is well under the 95th percentile, after warning for a long time that volatility should be expected.
30 day realized against vix is right at the median.. Just normal.
So now everything that is happening is normal. The next insight will be when something abnormal happens – which seems like some sort of irrational sell off at this point. We will continue to monitor.
Thanks and have a great week.