I can see from the questions that I am asked that not everyone understands how the Risk On-Off Model works and its purpose. Here are some definitive statements about it, which I have been trying to stress at every opportunity from the first day.  Please always bear them in mind:

  1. It is not a trading model. You cannot use it for day-to-day market action in ANY asset class.
  2. It will not hunt for lows.  It is a trend following model. It establishes the main trend and gets you into risk assets or out of them. That is all. It tells you if at any one time you should prefer Fixed Income investments or Equity investments.
  3. It is a long term model whose ONLY aim is to outperform a buy& hold strategy in Equities over YEARS. Not days. This it does REMARKABLY well.
  4. Its aim is therefore to have you invested in the SAFEST asset class at any one time, in the direction of the main trend it has established.

In order to help people who want to maximise their counter-trend returns and have time to do so (I envisaged this site for people who are not glued to screens and only have a few minutes a day to devote to their portfolios, at best), we will develop and publish next month an extra Tab, which will show you in which stage the market is and enable you to deploy accurate counter-trend strategies via options or purchases of individual shares/sectors. We like how Bespoke Invest has visually represented standard deviations from the mean (shown below) and we will try to emulate and improve upon this.

I will then narrate daily its findings in the Member Blog and try to help you with that too.


Please keep the questions coming if ever there is anything you are uncertain about. Either through the Comments to this Blog or through the contact email. Better to ask and be disabused than do something which costs you money!