The model score today improved to -51. Finally some meaningful improvement. This means that the spreads rotated internally, with the market improvement. It has taken a long time, but this is where the real battle commences. In the next 2-3 weeks, either the spreads will turn positive, support the market and give a long term buy signal for equities, or we have another sharp move lower. The scores will tell us.
Owners of HSIC should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are under-performing the market into rallies. We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down. Sorry to sound vague, but this will either mutate into a bull market with the model moving averages at a very low level, implying long staying power, or a violent continuation of the down move – a retest of the lows at best.