The model score today improved to -49. This means that the spreads improved internally, while the market was stable. This is where the real battle Is being waged. In the next 2-3 weeks, either the spreads will turn positive, support the market and give a long term buy signal for equities, or we have another sharp move lower. The scores will tell us. But we are on the cusp of a large move either way. As the score is improving, the odds are getting better that we eventually rally, but far too early to tell at the moment.
Owners of CTXS, GWW & FCX should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are under-performing the market into rallies. We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down. Sorry to sound vague, but this will either mutate into a bull market with the model moving averages at a very low level, implying long staying power, or a violent continuation of the down move – a retest of the lows at best.
Finally, we have a new Tab on the Member Page, which I have called “Deviations”. It shows the SPY ETF and its Sector components. It measures the standard deviations from the mean and should prove very useful in spotting when is a good time to add or lighten up on positions in the equity space. It should be fairly self-explanatory to use and I will narrate what it says in future in this daily blog. A daily newsletter with charts of interest will be coming soon too.