The model score today has remained steady at -84, the same as yesterday. This means that the market is not improving with price or deteriorating with lower prices.  In other words, the spreads are all still firmly stuck in a negative pattern.  As we warned, large up moves are likely to move the score initially very little.  What will move the score and eventually give a BUY signal is sideways spread action which allows the moving averages to catch up and eventually a breath thrust that will take spread prices through them.  That is probably still weeks away. But could be underway at the moment. Still to early to tell.

Better timing opportunities and/or prices certainly lie ahead.

Owners of AFL, AVGO, DE, PYPL, ICE & RMD should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.

We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.

I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are underperforming the market into rallies.

We have updated the performance for 2018 and this will be the subject of a separate blog post soon.

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