The model score decreased another 18 points to -28 today a fair large two day change. So far, the model has just scored positive once since early October 2018. We still have not seen a series of positive scores, since early October 2018 which is will be a signal that liquidity is returning to equities. As well, we have not *yet* seen any major correction and note that the longer the market maintains its upward bias the more likely is that the real surprise will be the upside.
Owners of WU, OMC, COST & BMY should check to see if this security is still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down – realized volatility continues to compress. Maximum protection of portfolio time via options.
Hi Nick,
You well?
I have excess cash just come into the p.a. and pondering in what asset to move considering the current levels of your risk dials (somewhat in no-mans land)? As stated above the model is fully invested in TLT but I have seen you mention SHY (or equivalent) in recent notes.
Best James
Yes, I like SHY because the yield is almost equivalent and the risk lower, imho. While the spreads adjust and finally decide on ultimate trend direction, to me that is the wisest option.