The model score today remained at -76 again! This means that the spreads did not rotate internally, even as the market gained 1%. In other words, the spreads are all still firmly stuck in a negative pattern. What we are looking for is any indication that asset spreads are moving even when the overall equity price level does not or even rises. We are seeing none of that at the moment. As we warned, large up moves are likely to move the score initially very little. What will move the score and eventually give a BUY signal is sideways spread action which allows the moving averages to catch up and eventually a breath thrust that will take spread prices through them. That is probably still weeks away. But seems to be underway at the moment. Alternatively, if a large down move occurs now, it will be price accepting the spreads and a violent continuation of the downtrend can be expected.
Better timing opportunities and/or prices certainly lie ahead.
Owners of SHW & GT should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are underperforming the market into rallies. We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down. Sorry to be vague, but this will either mutate into a bull market with the model moving averages at a very low level, implying long staying power, or a violent continuation of the down move – a retest of the lows at best.