The model score today fell to -62. As soon as price deteriorates, so do spreads. This means that the spreads worsened internally, with the market. This is where the real battle commences. In the next 2-3 weeks, either the spreads will turn positive, support the market and give a long term buy signal for equities, or we have another sharp move lower. The scores will tell us. If in the next couple of days the scores worsen significantly…then we have the same situation as in early December when the spreads made new lows with the equity market over 100 points off the lows. We all know what happened next.
Owners of ARNC should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are underperforming the market into rallies. We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down. Sorry to sound vague, but this will either mutate into a bull market with the model moving averages at a very low level, implying long staying power, or a violent continuation of the down move – a retest of the lows at best.