The model score today again worsened to -53. While 4 points is not much, it indicates internal market instability. This kind of fall back on minimal overall market movement is NOT an indicator of a market which is about to make a breadth thrust into positive territory, from my experience with it. In the next 2-3 weeks, either the spreads will turn positive, support the market and give a long term buy signal for equities, or we have another sharp move lower. The scores will tell us. But we are on the cusp of a large move either way. Which way it will break, today has made even more uncertain and provided no clarity. Tomorrow, with FOMC of deck, things should become much clearer.
Owners of MSFT & AMD should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are under-performing the market into rallies. We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down. Sorry to sound vague, but this will either mutate into a bull market with the model moving averages at a very low level, implying long staying power, or a violent continuation of the down move – a retest of the lows at best.