The model score today stayed at -35. No improvement despite the strength we are having. I have looked at all the components and none Improved today. This is basically nowhere near enough to swing the score to positive, which is needed for a buy signal.
Owners of ADM should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down. Maximum protection of portfolio time via options.
Hi!
I have few questions about the model
1) Do you have an idea how this model would work on sideways market which could last long time (years)? Up a bit and down a bit and so on again and again without clear direction.
2) And how the model would act in Japanese kind of decade lasting bear market which could be possible in other areas too?
3) Are you planned to create guides/more videos how to really exploit database data. E.g some practical real life examples would be nice
Thanks!
Hi Heikki,
1. The model is not price based. It is based on the relationship between risk on and off assets. Therefore it makes no difference if the equity market goes sideways, what matters is the RELATIVE performance between risk assets. One good example would be 2014-2015 when equities were in a sideways/up market, but bonds were in an up MORE market relative to equities. The model performed very well. It is not trying to pick the price trend of equities, but the relative trend between asset classes.
2. That would be ideal. Because it would enter into TLT (risk off) and never exit.
3. It is in progress. Let me finish some other projects and I will get round to it fairly soon.