Well, the model score today has finally moved…to -88. This means that the market is deteriorating internally with price. Nothing has changed in the spreads. Quite simply all the spread prices are so far below the relevant moving averages that small rallies just do nothing to improve the score. It is still correct, in my opinion, to avoid risk assets.
Unless the market now rallies very hard, the asset spreads utilized in the model suggest this will be a temporary reprieve, with much worse to come eventually.
Owners of AFL, A & NEM should examine whether it is worth holding these stocks, as the position is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are underperforming the market into rallies.