Riskdial worsened again to -47. The risk market is worsening by the day and we do not seem to have found firm support. We touched the Deviations green area and bounced mildly. Tomorrow it come in at SPY 277.85 and the lower boundary is 273.4. That means that somewhere in there will be a good temporary (at least) low. Buying call spreads between those levels will have a very high probability of profitability. But once the market breaks through the standard deviations and expands them, a powerful trend could emerge. The bands have started expanding already and after a bounce, the next decent move should be down again.
A stock to look at today is: PAYX (buy on all indicated pullbacks).
We are in Daily & Monthly Risk On, with 40% in equities and rest still invested in TLT. We are likely to be in Daily Risk Off as of tomorrow too. Which seems strangely appropriate in this weak & nervous environment.