The model score today has improved only to -80. This means that the spreads are improving far less than price. In other words, the spreads are all still firmly stuck in a negative pattern. As we warned, large up moves are likely to move the score initially very little. What will move the score and eventually give a BUY signal is sideways spread action which allows the moving averages to catch up and eventually a breath thrust that will take spread prices through them. That is probably still weeks away. But seems to be underway at the moment. Alternatively, if a large down move occurs now, it will be price accepting the spreads and a violent continuation of the downtrend can be expected.
Better timing opportunities and/or prices certainly lie ahead.
Owners of SRE & APD should check to see if these securities are still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.
We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.
I would still advise extreme caution and lightening up of individual names which are under-performing the market into rallies. We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down. Sorry to be vague, but this will either mutate into a bull market with the model moving averages at a very low level, implying long staying power, or a violent continuation of the down move – a retest of the lows at best.