The model score decreased 16 points to -10 today with the small sell off.  So far, the model has just scored positive once since early October 2018 – yesterday. Still, the longer the market maintains its upward bias the more likely is that the real surprise will be the upside.  But one thing at the time. Let us first see a series of positive scores, which has not been the case since early October 2018, although the MA difference has now narrowed considerably into the -30s and without meaningful sell offs continues to improve on a daily basis. The monthly and weekly models are improving too.

Owners of NEM, KR, USB & BIIB should check to see if this security is still needed in their portfolio, as the picture is rapidly deteriorating in those names.

We are still in full Risk Off, invested in TLT.

We are very near to a big impulsion moment, either up or down – realized volatility continues to compress.  Maximum protection of portfolio time via options.

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