How do I set up my Member Page?
Simply input your email address and create a password which needs to be at least 8 characters long. Please view this video for more detail.
How much is the Subscription?
$99.00 quarterly or $350 yearly. It is the best value you will ever get for such quality of research.
What can I view on my mobile device?
On your mobile device you can access all non-member features, including the public blog. The member features are detailed visuals that should be viewed on a desktop computer for optimal user experience.
MEMBER PAGE TABS
What does the Speedometer on the “Risk On-Off Model” tab measure?
It measures the relationship of various markets and asset classes. The higher the score of the Speedometer, the higher the level of risk you should be ready to assume in your portfolio and vice versa. We measure the relative spread of hundreds of instruments and arrive at a daily score of the market’s appetite for risk. A discussion of the Risk On-Off Speedometer is available in this video and is described in detail in this blog post.
What do you mean by “Risk On”?
Markets move in cycles. “Risk On” means that the probabilities of higher returns lie with equities rather than with the relative safety of Government Bonds. It indicates a period of strong economic growth ahead when “Risk Assets” (i.e.: equities) are likely to offer much better performance and returns than “Risk Off” assets such as safe Government Bonds.
What do you mean by “Risk Off”?
“Risk Off” refers to a higher probability that safe assets such as Government Bonds will offer a better return in the immediate future rather than riskier assets such as equities. It forecasts a period ahead which will see slower growth and quite possibly declines in equity prices, when it is much better to be invested in safe Government Bonds which provide a safe and steady stream of income and maintain their value.
Why have Daily, Weekly and Monthly models?
From many decades of experience, I have found that adding to investments is a more reliable way to generate long term performance rather than just jumping in with both feet on a single signal. I use a 20% allocation to equities when I receive a Daily Model signal, a 60% allocation when the signal is from the Weekly Model and a further 20% when it is from the Monthly Model. This way I can have a mixture of equities and bonds or have a 100% allocation to equities or a 100% allocation to bonds depending on signals from various timeframes which generate much better long term performance. Basically, you want to have the largest allocations when signals in various timeframes confirm each other and this is what is achieved by having 3 different timeframe models instead of just one.
How do the Counter-Trend Models work and why are they useful?
Markets over-react. The Counter-Trend models look for excesses in market behavior and stand ready to signal when declines in the stock market have exceeded reasonable levels. They signal excellent buying opportunities with the highest risk-reward of owning equities for the future. Interestingly, they trigger almost always when the untrained investor is ready to give up on his equity exposure. They are a great tool to help investors get over their fears and see that professionals are ready to buy equities for the long term. A detailed explanation can be found in this video.
What is the point of the Asset Allocation Model?
While the Risk On-Off Model only allocates between equities (SPY) and bonds (TLT), the Allocation model allocates to Commodities, Gold, short term bonds (SHY ETF) as well as to equities and long term bonds. It is always useful to have the possibility to allocate to different asset classes as well as to just equities or long term bonds. A detailed explanation of the Asset Allocation Model is available in this video.
Can a bear market in equities occur without the “Risk On-Off Models” spotting it?
No, that is almost mathematically impossible. It is highly improbable for equities to enter a bearish period and for the model scores not to reflect it. That is because the relative spread between asset classes would have to change and that has to be reflected in the model by force of mathematics. It is precisely this mathematical relationship which makes the models so reliable in forecasting bear markets, which was absolutely proven in reality during the equity bear markets of 2000-‘03 and 2008-’09, which the Model warned of long in advance of them happening. In fact, the Models are excellent as timing tools which predict equity downturns.
How do I use the All Charts tab?
The Charts are grouped in “Books” so each ETF or Bond, or individual equity is grouped with its relevant peers. Here you can compare their relative performance and see which assets are performing best by simply looking at the individual asset’s speedometer or by comparing it to a benchmark. The Charts are excellent for starting a discussion with your broker or wealth advisor. You will no longer need to accept his word that this is a good asset to know. You will be in a position to actually ask him relevant questions as you will have all the relevant information at your fingertips. A detailed analysis of all the features of the Charts is available in this video.
The ticker I am interested in is not in the Charts or the Database. Can you add it?
Currently we follow about 1,000 of the most popular and relevant ETFs, shares and cryptocurrencies. But we are always willing to go further. Just send us an email with your request and we will make additions monthly.
How should I use the Database Tab?
The Database answers your customized queries. You can obtain all the answers you want on hundreds of ETFs, all the individual stocks in the S&P 500 and many Cryptocurrencies as well. A detailed analysis of the many features is available in this video.
How do I add tickers to the My Tickers tab?
Please watch this video.
What is the Member Blog?
The Member Blog is where I analyze each day all the changes that have taken place in the various Models and the Database and tell you in plain English what you should be looking at and what are interesting investments that you can either do by yourselves or talk to your investment advisors about, to see if they fit in your overall portfolio. I will tell you in plain English all that is happening and reflect what action, if any, you should be taking to safeguard your investments or seize opportunities, in real time.